A Leap of Faith

Well, as I write this it's a rare day, a once every 4 years day. Leap year day, February 29! So, since it's so rare and since I'm in a rare mood, lets do something I never do, lets talk politics shall we?

I see Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano has gone on record today as saying Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick should not be pressured into resigning. He further stated that his thoughts on this could all change if Wayne County Prosecutor Kim Worthy charges the mayor with purjury in the text messaging scandal. I feel Ficano is right. No matter what you may think about his private life, Kilpatrick has done more for the City of Detroit as mayor, than any of his predecessors over the last 40 years combined, dating back to the 1967 Detroit riots. He's bringing business back into the city and he's striving to improve neighborhoods which, in my opinion, is the real key to making Detroit a world class city again. For years, city leaders felt improving the downtown riverfront area was the key and they neglected the neighborhoods.

Many of the "letters to the editors" I see in the 2 Detroit dailies and the public voices I hear on Detroit talk radio stations, are not the "voices" of Detroit. They are outsiders, like me, living here in the suburbs. Maybe they feel they can tell Detroit and the mayor what to do, because they work in Detroit as I did for 15 years and thus, pay a city income tax, as I did. But they don't live there, they live in the suburbs. Many don't even work in Detroit. If you don't live there, what right do you have to tell the city what to do? Reporters can be very selective sometimes as to who they talk to on the streets, when they talk to residents. My sources tell me, many Detroit residents don't even want to talk to reporters. So how can you get a true feeling about what's going on in the heads of the Detroit electorate if they won't talk with you?

Yes, I'm in a rare mood. But not rare enough to want to stunt Detroit's recent growth. Detroit's "hip hop" mayor may have done some illegal things, but that's for the courts to decide. His youth and his surrounding "posse" have made him feel like king of the mountain. Yet he is a smart, sharp guy and a great public face for the city. However, if it becomes clear that his public face is being hampered by his private face, then yes, there should be hell to pay. As Ficano said, if Kim Worthy charges the mayor with purjury and he's found guilty, then he must go! But for now, let him stay on the job and do his thing, which is reviving this once great middle American city. As one Detroiter, not suburbanite, said on the local TV news the other day, "why don't they just let the mayor alone and let him do his job for the rest of the term for which he was elected?"

Strictly Baseball On This One!!

I watched much of Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee's testimony before Congress today and came away thinking what a dog and pony show. With a war going on in Iraq and Afghanistan, with Michigan and soon, much of the rest of the country in recession due to an economy that's in shambles, mostly due to homes sales and mortgages and with possibly the most important Presidential election in this country in years on the horizon and Congress is worried about the use of steroids or HGH in baseball? One Congressman even asked Clemens today what uniform Clemens would wear when he enters the Hall of Fame. Come on Congress, get a life!!

And then there's the media. I turned on one of the local sports talk stations and low and behold, they're telling me how Clemens is being "crusified" by Congress. Well, from where I was sitting, both here at home and then later on my real estate office computer, I saw McNamee getting his share of verbal abuse from the Congressmen and Congresswomen who were on hand. But then again, that's the media, ready to dub someone guilty until they're proven innocent. Think O.J., Robert Blake and others.

Hey, I don't know anything about this steroid usage issue, whether Roger did or didn't. Yes, I do care, because if he did, it's just another black eye for baseball. The game will continue getting black eyes, until they hire an independant commissioner, similar to what we had before Bud Selig took the job. Big Bud at the time, was a baseball owner and he continued in that capacity for quite some time after taking on the commissioners post. The leaders of the game, must clean up their own act before they can even think about cleaning up the sport itself. Lets bring in another Kenesaw Mountain Landis or Bart Giamatti to bring baseball back where it needs to be, untainted and unquestionably the "national pastime."

The Current Real Estate Trend

I don't know if you saw the article in Monday's Detroit News entitled "2008 may be brutal again for Michigan real estate," but there were some interesting points made in the article, which was written by Nathan Hurst.

According to Realcomp, which is the multiple listing service most used by Southeast Michigan agents, home sales in our area have fallen 14.4 percent since 2004. But the even bigger news is the average sales price of a home in Southeast Michigan fell 17.3 percent over that same time span, 2004 to 2007. So if your home was worth 200,000 in 2004, today it would be worth 165,400. Yet, as an agent, I'm seeing homeowners and their agents, still trying to list that home for 200,000! The problem with that, is the eventual appraisal. If someone puts an offer in on that home for say 190,000 for the sake of argument and the seller accepts, within a couple of weeks, the appraiser for the buyers mortgage company is going to visit the home. That appraiser will go back 6 months to check recent sales prices in the neighborhood and they'll see that similar homes in that sub have been selling for 165 to 170,000 and they won't be able to appraise that 200,000 listing for it's 190,000 sales price. Thus, the mortgage company won't give the buyer a mortgage and THE DEAL IS OFF!!!! Sellers seem to forget the appraisal process when they price their homes and this was a good example of what COULD happen.

The Detroit News article goes on to say that new home construction in our area is at it's lowest level in 40 years. The article also says 2007 foreclosures were up 65% over 2006 figures.
But there are great bargains out there and of course, if you're a buyer, I'd love to show them to you. They are everywhere and with the Fed cutting interest rates 3/4's of a point on Monday, expect the interest rates on 30 year fixed rate mortgages to fall even further, to record lows, closer to 5% interest than to 6%.

If you'd like to learn more, give me a call at my office number, 248-526-2193 and I'd love to chat with you about the opportunities in today's real estate market.

It's That Time Again

I haven't blogged anything for just over two months, so I guess it's time to crawl out of my hole, end the holiday break and vacation and put my nose to the grindstone once again!

Good news for buyers! Did you know that mortgage interest rates are back down below 6% on a 30 year fixed? I just spoke with my regular mortgage guy, Dave Tumey of Cambridge Mortgage and he tells me the rate yesterday, was 5.875% on a 30 year fixed, while today it bumped back up to 6% on the nose. So it does vary from day to day. Many in the real estate industry feel there's a lot of pent up demand out there for home buyers so with mortgage rates dropping from the 6.25 to 6.375 they were at a few months ago down to 6% and lower, maybe these buyers will start crawling out of the woodwork, just like I've crawled out of my hole to write this blog! If this is true, it means the poor real estate market we were in since mid 2005 may have finally bottomed out and there's nowhere to go but up. Just don't look for any of those special mortgage rates and "low cost" loans that were out there a few years ago. Such deals almost ran the mortgage industry and the nations economy into the ground!

I guess I'm also obligated to write something about sports so here goes, in no special order. While I've been away from blogging:

Roger the Dodger (of questions that is) has said he didn't do steroids. Do you believe him? I Don't. In his Sunday interview with Mike Wallace, he looked awful clammy to me, like he was ready to sweat bullets at any time. Good thing he wasn't attached to a lie detector then. I can't believe that Andy Pettitte, Roger's good friend and Roger were outed by the same trainer. Then Pettitte admitted to it, but Roger is still in denial.

Lloyd Carr retired as Michigan football coach and Michigan, after a 4 week search, landed Rich Rodriguez as their new head coach. Hey Rich, wanna buy a house? Congrats to Lloyd on a career well done and for that sweet win over Florida on January 1. Now if Rich can find himself a quarterback and replacements for the likes of Manningham, Hart, Arrington and Long, UM might win another 8 regular season games next year! Difficult system adjustments are ahead.

The Lions finished their season, losing 6 of their last 7, thwarting their media critics. I got sick of hearing from the media after the Lions were 3-2, that they'd lose their last 11, to finish 3-13. Then after they were 4-2, they'd lose their last 10 to go 4-12. Finally when they were 6-2, they'd lose their last 8 to finish 6-10. I saw the 2007 Lions season as a 4 win improvement over 2006 and if they win 4 more next year over this years 7 victories, watch out!!!!!

The Wings are the best team in hockey, by far, but Hockeytown has turned into a ghost town as far as attendance goes. Well gee, what did you expect, to win the Stanley Cup in January? Just shows to go 'ya how little the regular season means. It's the playoffs that count and local Wings fans have heard that song before about the Wings being hockey's best, October thru April, only to fall flat in May. And Darren McCarty isn't the answer. It goes far deeper!

Finally, that whopper of a Tiger trade with the Marlins. The Tigers get a 24 year old superstar in the making in Miguel Cabrera and a young 25 year old former Cy Young Award runner up for a handful of unproven prospects. WOW! Print your World Series tickets now Mike Ilitch! Boy the pressure on Jim Leyland in 2008 will be enough to make him smoke. Oh, wait a minute, he already does. The Tigers will be beasts in the Central, but the BoSox lie in ambush.

So that's it for blogging for now. Hopefully it won't take another 2+ months before I have something else to say. But then again, I always have something to say, it's just finding the time to do it in that's hard!

To Sell Your House, Make It Shine

Recent stories ARE true, we definitely ARE in a downtrend in the real estate market. Since the middle of 2005 here in Metro Detroit, it's turned from a sellers market, where sellers could literally name their own price, to a buyers market where buyers can literally name their own price. There are many, many more homes on the market at this time of year, than there were at a similar time in any year, from the late 1990's to 2005. As a result, there is a "glut" of homes on the market, meaning a buyer has many homes to choose from fitting his or her needs. An example would be a buyer looking for a ranch in the $200,000 range. 5 years ago, there may have been 10 houses to look at, matching the buyer's criteria. Today, there are 40. So what to do to make your home stick out amongst the "glut.".

First and foremost, price it right. A buyer who's done their homework and a good real estate agent will know value when they see it. An agent can just look on the Multiple Listing Service, see a price in a certain neighborhood and know it's priced to high and may not even show your home. If you price your home to high with the thought of gradually reducing the price a bit at a time, you could be in for a long wait for an offer. While your house sits on the market, more and more houses are entering the marketplace making your high priced home, even less desirable.

Second, make your home sparkle. Remove the clutter and open it up. Do work both inside and out to give the home more curb appeal. Inside, paint walls, polish floors, shampoo carpeting and follow the advice of your Realtor who knows what's appealing to buyers currently out there looking, because in many cases, your Realtor is also working with buyers and he knows what their current likes and dislikes are.

Third, choose your agent carefully. Select at least 3 agents from 3 different companies to interview. Many sellers think the important thing is what commission the agent will charge. But MARKETING is the key. An agent may charge you a low commission, take a picture or two and put your home on the Multiple Listing Service and that's it! A full service broker WILL charge a higher commission, but will not only take pictures and put your home on the MLS, but will do virtual tours, put your home on many Internet websites, buy print advertising and will constantly keep you informed about what's happening in the marketplace. The full service broker could get your home sold weeks, even months faster than the "commission cheapie."

All in all, it's not easy being a seller. There are big decisions to make and I'm here to help you make the right choices!

Let The World Series Begin!

Well, it's World Series time and I have to say I think the Red Sox will take the Rockies in 6 games or less. Now I have to be careful here, as a native New Englander and lifelong Red Sox fan, not be to biased. Boston has been going to World Series since the first one was played, back in 1903, when the then Boston Pilgrims beat the Pirates. Back then, there was no such thing as Fenway Park. The Boston franchise played it's games at the Huntington Avenue Grounds, now the site of Northeastern University. Fenway Park didn't open it's doors until April 20, 1912 and what a season that was for the renamed Red Sox in that fine piece of real estate.

One of the big differences between Detroit baseball and Boston baseball is the Tigers are not a regional team, they basically draw from Michigan, Northwestern Ohio and parts of Western Ontario and that's it. The Red Sox are New England's team, drawing fans from all six New England states and the Canadian Maritimes in what really is a regional franchise. And that's where the great 1912 Red Sox team comes in, the first Boston team to win a World Series with the nickname of Red Sox. With a roster full of New Englanders, they beat John McGraw's Giants. The 1912 Red Sox featured 2 eventual Hall of Famers, outfielders Tris Speaker and Harry Hooper, neither of whom were New Englanders. Catcher Bill Carrigan was from Lewiston, Maine. Pitcher Ray Collins who went 2-1 in the World Series and was from Burlington, Vermont. Backup 1st baseman Hugh Bradley, 4th outfielder Olaf Henriksen and 20 game winner Buck O'Brien were all from Massachusetts. There was even a Michigander on the 1912 World Champion Red Sox, utility infielder Neal Beal from Grand Haven.

Finally, one of the great clutch hitters of his era anchored the infield at third base. Burlington, Vermont's Larry Gardner! Now I met Larry in 1975 in Burlington, where I worked in radio. Here was this white haired little man, at that time age 88, at a dinner I attended and I was introduced to him. Turns out I knew little about him other than I was told he played at one time for the Red Sox. Well folks, Larry Gardner should be the third Hall of Famer from that 1912 Boston Roster. He started at third base for 4, count 'em, 4 world champions. The 1912, '15 & '16 Red Sox and the 1920 Indians. He had a lifetime average at 289 and just under 2000 career hits. A superb fielder along with his clutch hitting, Gardner, like fine wine, actually became better with age, have back to back 100+ rbi seasons with the Indians in 1920 and 1921 and his batting averages got higher as he got older. His stats stand up to any third baseman who's ever played the game!

Larry Gardner retired from major league baseball in 1924 and went back to Burlington to become head baseball coach and athletic director at his alma mater, the University of Vermont from the late 1920's until the early 1950's. The indoor track facility at the school is named for him and his former 1912 Red Sox teamate and fellow UVM grad Ray Collins, the Gardner-Collins cage. Larry Gardner was also a lifelong friend of University of Michigan baseball coaching legend Ray Fisher, who was also a native Vermonter and they annually coached against each other in the summer Northern Collegiate Baseball League, which was based in Vermont.

So when you think of regional major league teams, don't forget the Red Sox and that team of 1912, which opened Fenway with a bang, won a World Series title and with a quarter of their roster being New Englanders, earned the Boston franchise the title of "New England's Team."

For those of you who are new to Larry Gardner's name, he died in 1976 at age 89, a few months after I met him. Check out his stats for yourself by clicking on this link. You'll be amazed at what this man did in his career of basically 13 full seasons and 4 world championships, I promise you:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gardnla01.shtml

He belongs in Cooperstown! Thanx......Paul

October, the 10th and Greatest Month!

I love October. The weather in my opinion, is the best of the year. Early in the month, warm temperatures, then later crisp days and nights as winter draws near. The color of the leaves in their autumnal change lets you know that winter is just around the corner and many sports, high school and professional, start to go full bore in. In baseball, it's the playoffs and World Series and the pro basketball and hockey seasons are just beginning. The pro seasons are way to long though. I remember when I was a youngster, the World Series ended in mid October and the pro basketball and hockey playoffs finished in April.

Sports wise, the Tigers season was a disappointment in that injuries derailed them. They should bounce back strong next year with Pudge Rodriguez still there to lead. They'll find a new shortstop, possibly Cesar Izturis of the Pirates and look for them to enter the Adam Dunn sweepstakes to get a heavyweight and heavy hitting left fielder. In hockey, the Red Wings will disappoint their fans once again, with a great regular season then a slip and fall in the playoffs. When will Wing's management realize you must be competitive in the playoffs and win the occasional Stanley Cup, to keep putting fannies in the seats? It doesn't matter whether they play in the east or west, whether they are allowed to fight or not. What matters is to win cups and the Wings are now 5 seasons removed from their last title, soon to be 6.

In football, the Lions will have their ups and downs this year, but I still see them finishing at 8 and 8, which might get them into the playoffs. Michigan football will go 8-4 in the regular season, a far cry from what was expected, but Mike Hart will be one of the finalists invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremonies. And the Michigan State Spartans will have a winning season and will go to a bowl game. As for the Pistons, well, they like the Wings, are getting older, but there is hope that some youth will be infused with their new draft picks. They'll be competitive again but I don't see them getting to the NBA Finals.

As a Realtor, October signifies a slow down in the selling season, a chance to put on the brakes a bit and reflect back on the year 2007. As a Realtor in the only state in the union that's in recession right now, it's been difficult and I don't see it getting any better for us, Realtors or our clients, until mid 2009, so hang in there. October is also a time to look ahead for all of us to set our sights on that new year that's just around the corner. I can't wait for the excitement of 2008, with new hope ready to burst from every seam. The elections will be upon us soon and that will also bring change.

I can't wait. I love October!